China Shipping Rates Update: Why Freight Costs Are Falling and What Comes Next

After two years of sky-high ocean freight, rates have dropped 40–75% since January 2022. I’ve seen many importers finally get some breathing room on their logistics budgets, but this window won’t last forever. Understanding where rates are headed and when to lock in contracts is critical for protecting your margins.

Shipping rates are falling!

Depending on the destination, international shipping is possible by air, sea, rail, and road transport solutions. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages and has different transit times and freight rates.

In 2021, 40 ‘HC container freight rates ranged from USD 8,000 to over USD 18,000. From January 2022, the rates have a downward trend (apart from a slight increase in July). Depending on the route, rates have dropped by 40-75% since the beginning of the year. Current freight rates are at or below their 2021 lowest level observed in April. The drop in transport rates makes customers renegotiate long-term contracts with carriers.

The graph below compares 2021 and 2022 ocean freight rates.

Shipping rates 2022

Let us take a look at the current ocean, rail, and air freight rates (September 2022):

LCL Rail freight

• Xiamen-Hamburg: 2.38 CBM – 700 USD
• Ningbo-Pruszków: 780 kg/13.14 CBM – 3000 USD

FCL Rail Freight

• 40’HC Jing’an-Gdańsk: 8500 USD
• 40’HC Guangzhou-Duisburg: 8800 USD

LCL Ocean Freight

• Gdańsk-Nowy York: 1.92 CBM – 1000-1100 USD
• Shenzhen-Gdańsk: 12 CBM – 3900 USD
• Gdańsk-Brisbane: 8.64 CBM – 3000 USD

FCL Ocean Freight

• 40’HC Tianjin-Gdańsk: 8700 USD
• 40’HC Xiamen-Hamburg: 7000-8000 USD
• 40’HC Gdańsk-Felixtowe: 4000 USD

Air Freight

• Toronto-Frankfurt: 0.1 CBM – 500/600 USD
• Yiwu-Gdańsk: 200 kg – 6000 USD
• Manchester-Warszawa: 1.2 CBM – 700 USD

Looking at the examples, it is clear that rail freight is less expensive than ocean freight. Air freight is the most expensive transport solution of all.

Will ocean freight rates decline in 2023?

With rates expected to stay soft through early 2023, now is the time to renegotiate long-term contracts and secure better terms with your carriers. But cheaper freight doesn’t mean you can relax on quality—spiking demand for low-cost containers can attract substandard goods. That’s where China-Check’s factory inspections and supplier verification help you maintain product integrity while your shipping costs shrink.